The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services (Pagasa) advised the public in January that 2010 will be an El Niño year. The El Niño, properly the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, is a quasi-periodic (i.e. varies on the average from three to seven years) warming of the surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean coupled with the changes in surface pressure in the tropical western Pacific. This affects precipitation patterns and temperatures. The El Niño in the Philippines typically spells less typhoons, a shorter rainy season and weak monsoon activity.

This dry spell sets up the stage for the Metropolitan Waterworks and Sewerage System (MWSS) to talk about of a looming water shortage and a pitch for a water dam project. The MWSS has already warned of faucets running dry if Metro residents do not conserve water. They said that the water level at the Angat dam is already below normal and it is claimed that the Angat dam, which currently provides 97 percent of the Metro’s water supply, will not be able to meet the growing water demand unless the $1-billion Laiban dam is constructed.

The construction of the Laiban dam is the MWSS’ answer to the impending water deficit by 2015. It was first proposed 30 years ago and government has already expended around P755 million on the project since the 1970s. It has been postponed several times already by different administrations because of issues on social impacts, corruption, lack of funding, technicalities and strong local opposition.

This fierce local opposition is to be expected since during the construction phase, the project is estimated to affect no less than 21,000 people from eight barangays in Rizal and Quezon provinces. According to the Network Opposed to the Laiban Dam Project, indigenous groups such as the Dumagats and the Remontados will be driven off their ancestral lands. These groups who have lived over the estimated 28,000 hectares area of the project will now be put together in a 4,424 hectare area without any clear source for their livelihood.

Looking back at the looming water shortage, it seems that the forecast made by the MWSS for the future water demand is overstated. Based on the actual production of the two private concessionaires, Maynilad and Manila Water, only 3,682 million of liters per day (MLD) were needed in 2008 to supply the needs of greater Metro Manila. As such, they would only need to produce around 4,450 MLD by 2015 to meet the growing water demand. This is much less than the projection of MWSS of 5,130 MLD.

MWSS assumes that there will be an increase of 274 MLD per year from now until 2015 when there was only an average increase of 59 MLD per year from 1997 to 2007.

It seems that the drumming up of the supposed water shortage is timed with the upcoming signing of an agreement between MWSS and San Miguel Bulk Water Corp. this March. MWSS announced that they would sign the memorandum of agreement with San Miguel for the construction of the Laiban dam on March 3, 2010. This is right where the El Niño effects is expected to reach its peak giving an impression that the dam project can immediately address any actual water shortage.

However, there are other alternatives to the Laiban project, which are more economical, efficient and less destructive to the environment and communities. One is to reopen the decommissioned Wawa dam in Rodriguez, Rizal. Some studies report that the existing Wawa dam can produce from 50 to 80 MLD, and can be rehabilitated in less than a year.

Another alternative is to fix the efficiency of the water distribution network in Metro Manila. According to the Maynilad Water Services and Manila Water Co., their water distribution systems loss is at 60 percent and 20 percent, respectively. If these can be reduced to a single digit then at least 500 MLD will be available for the Metro area by fixing existing pipelines. With such alternatives, pushing the Laiban dam project, despite the opposition of many groups and affected communities makes us question the dam’s real purpose.

It has become an easy recourse for the government to privatize the operations of basic utilities that have a direct impact to communities. They have done this with electricity, transportation, fuel and water. In each case, each utility has become more costly and inaccessible to the ordinary people. Our experience with the privatization of water services have only led to the retrenchment of water district workers, ever increasing water rates, continually poor service and displacement of marginalized sectors in their communities. If the MWSS is truly serious in addressing the water needs of the Metro, then it should look into other viable alternatives that are reasonable and less costly than the Laiban dam project.